The Brazilian Serie A continues with an exciting clash as Palmeiras welcome Mirassol to the iconic Allianz Parque on Wednesday, July 16, 2025, at 22:00 UTC. This Matchday 14 fixture sees 5th-placed Palmeiras take on 9th-placed Mirassol, with both teams looking to climb the table in Brazil’s top flight. With crucial points at stake and Palmeiras’ home advantage, this match promises to be a compelling encounter in São Paulo.
Palmeiras vs Mirassol
Palmeiras and Mirassol have faced each other 15 times in their history, with Palmeiras winning 9 matches, Mirassol winning 3, and 3 ending in draws. The head-to-head record clearly favors Palmeiras, who have dominated this fixture historically. On average, their encounters have produced 3.14 goals per match, with 66.7% of games featuring over 2.5 goals.
In their most recent meeting in February 2025, Palmeiras secured a 3-2 victory over Mirassol in the Campeonato Paulista. This result continued Palmeiras’ strong record against their opponents, though it showed that Mirassol can be competitive and find the back of the net against quality opposition.
Palmeiras currently sit 5th in the Serie A table with 22 points from 11 matches, having won 7, drawn 1, and lost 3 games. Their form has been excellent overall, winning 64% of their matches this season. At home, Palmeiras have been more modest with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from 5 matches, scoring only 3 goals while conceding 3. However, their away form has been outstanding with 5 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, demonstrating their quality when traveling.
Meanwhile, Mirassol has performed admirably in their first Serie A campaign, sitting 9th with 17 points from 11 matches after 4 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses. Their form has been average overall, winning 30% of their matches. Away from home, Mirassol has struggled more with 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 losses from 6 matches, scoring 7 goals while conceding 7. Their home record has been stronger with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses from 5 matches.
Statistics for the match:
Palmeiras have been impressive defensively this season, averaging just 0.73 goals conceded per match while scoring 1.09 goals per game. Their attacking output has been conservative but effective, with a solid defensive foundation that has kept them competitive in all competitions.
Mirassol have shown more attacking intent, averaging 1.60 goals scored per match but conceding 1.20 goals per game. For a newly promoted side, these numbers demonstrate their ability to compete at the highest level, though their defensive record suggests vulnerability against stronger attacking teams.
Recent form shows Palmeiras have been excellent away from home, but more inconsistent at the Allianz Parque. Mirassol has struggled on the road, managing only one victory in six away matches this season. Their last match was a 1-0 victory over Sport Recife, showing they can grind out results when needed.
Betting odds heavily favor Palmeiras, with the home team priced at around 1.43-1.45 across various bookmakers. The draw is available at approximately 4.50-4.75, while Mirassol’s victory is priced at 7.60-9.00. These odds reflect the significant gulf in quality and resources between the two teams.
What is the Prediction?
In conclusion, despite Mirassol’s respectable performances in their debut Serie A campaign, our match prediction is for Palmeiras -1 handicap. The home advantage at Allianz Parque, combined with Palmeiras’ superior squad depth and quality, gives them a significant edge. While Mirassol has shown they can compete at this level, their poor away record and Palmeiras’ historical dominance in this fixture support a comfortable home victory. The -1 handicap offers excellent value considering Palmeiras’ need to climb the table and their ability to control games at home against weaker opposition.
Summary
Match: Palmeiras vs Mirassol
Bet: Palmeiras -1 handicap
Odds: 2.10 / +110
