The 247th Merseyside Derby takes place at Anfield on Saturday, 20 September 2025, 12:30 BST as Premier League leaders Liverpool host fierce rivals Everton. Our comprehensive analysis strongly recommends Over 2.5 Goals based on historical data, current form, and tactical matchup factors.
Merseyside Derby: Historical Goal Trends
Recent Derby Goal Statistics:
- Last 10 meetings: 7 featured Over 2.5 goals (70%)
- At Anfield (last 10): 8 featured Over 2.5 goals (80%)
- Liverpool scored in 95% of last 20 derbies
- Average goals: 3.05 per Merseyside Derby
Current Season Form Analysis
Liverpool – Premier League Leaders
- League Position: 1st (12 points from 4 matches, 100% record)
- Home Form: Unbeaten in 15 consecutive home league matches
- Over 2.5 Goals: 70% of Liverpool matches this season
- Attack: Averaging 2.75 goals per match, 11 goals in 4 games
- Key Players: Mohamed Salah (2 goals, 1 assist), Alexander Isak (debut goal vs Atletico Madrid)
Everton – Improved Under Moyes
- League Position: 6th (7 points from 4 matches)
- Away Form: 60% of away matches see Over 2.5 goals
- Goals Involvement: Averaging 1.75 goals per match (scored + conceded)
- Away Record: 40% Over 2.5 goals in away fixtures this season
- Key Players: Jack Grealish (Player of the Month winner)
Why Over 2.5 Goals Is Exceptional Value
1. Historical Derby Data
- 65% of all Merseyside Derbies produce 3+ goals
- 80% of recent Anfield derbies see Over 2.5
- Liverpool scored 2+ goals in 60% of derby meetings
- Average 3.05 goals per derby over 246 matches
2. Liverpool’s Attacking Excellence
- 70% Over 2.5 rate in Liverpool’s 2025/26 matches
- Liverpool score in 95% of derby meetings
- Average 2.75 goals per match at home this season
- Multiple goal threats: Salah, Isak, Gakpo
3. Everton’s Away Vulnerability
- 60% Over 2.5 rate in Everton away matches
- Concede average 1.25 goals per away match
- Defensive issues against top-6 opposition
- Historical struggle at Anfield (1 win since 1999)
4. Tactical Factors
- High-intensity derby atmosphere encourages attacking play
- Both teams play open, attacking football
- Liverpool’s high press creates transition opportunities
- Everton’s counter-attacking style vs Liverpool’s possession game
Statistical Deep Dive
Goals Breakdown Analysis
| Metric | Liverpool | Everton | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.75 | 1.25 | 4.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Expected total | 3.25 | 2.25 | 5.50 |
| Over 2.5 individual rate | 70% | 40% | 55% |
| Derby Over 2.5 rate | 80% | 80% | 80% |
Betting Market Analysis
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.61 | 62.1% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.37 | 42.2% |
| Liverpool Win | 1.36 | 73.5% |
| BTTS Yes | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| Liverpool Win & Over 2.5 | 1.95 | 51.3% |
Value Analysis: Over 2.5 at 1.61 offers exceptional value considering:
- 80% historical rate at Anfield derbies
- Liverpool’s 70% Over 2.5 rate this season
- 3.05 average goals in Merseyside Derbies
Team News & Tactical Setup
Liverpool Predicted XI (4-3-3):
- GK: Alisson Becker
- DEF: Jeremie Frimponh, Virgil van Dijk, Ibrahima Konaté, Andy Robertson
- MID: Florian Wirtz, Ryan Gravenberch, Dominik Szoboszlai
- FWD: Mohamed Salah, Alexander Isak, Cody Gakpo
Tactical Notes:
- High pressing triggers immediate attacks
- Wing-backs provide width and crossing opportunities
- Multiple goal threats from all positions
Everton Predicted XI (4-2-3-1):
- GK: Jordan Pickford
- DEF: Jake O’Brien, James Tarkowski, Michael Keane, James Garner
- MID: Idrissa Gana Gueye, Tim Iroegbunam
- CAM: Jack Grealish, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Iliman Ndiaye
- ST: Beto
Tactical Notes:
- Compact defensive shape then quick transitions
- Grealish’s creativity key to unlocking Liverpool defense
- Set-pieces and counter-attacks main scoring routes
Key Derby Storylines
1. Arne Slot’s Perfect Start
Liverpool’s new manager maintains 100% Premier League record and seeks first Merseyside Derby victory.
2. David Moyes Revival
Everton manager targeting first Anfield win since his Manchester United days, with improved tactical setup.
3. Alexander Isak Derby Debut
Liverpool’s record signing makes his Merseyside Derby debut after impressive Champions League goal.
4. Jack Grealish Momentum
Everton’s Player of the Month winner aims to continue excellent early-season form.
Expert Prediction Strategy
Primary Recommendation:
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.61 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Supporting Evidence:
- 80% historical rate in recent Anfield derbies
- 3.05 average goals across 246 derby meetings
- Liverpool’s 70% Over 2.5 rate in 2025/26
- Open, attacking tactical styles from both managers
- Derby intensity historically produces goals
Alternative Markets:
- Liverpool Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 (Combination value)
- Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.80 (Higher risk, higher reward)
- Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 @ 2.20 (Enhanced safety)
Match Prediction Summary
Expected Score: Liverpool 3-1 Everton (4 total goals)
Key Factors:
- Historical precedent strongly favors Over 2.5 goals
- Liverpool’s attacking firepower at home
- Everton’s improved form but defensive vulnerabilities
- Derby atmosphere encouraging attacking play
- Both teams’ tactical approaches favor open football
