AC Milan host Bologna at the iconic San Siro Stadium on Sunday, 14 September 2025, 18:45 UTC (20:45 local time) in a pivotal Serie A Round 3 encounter. Our expert analysis strongly backs AC Milan to win at attractive odds, supported by head-to-head dominance, home advantage, and superior squad quality.
Head-to-Head & Historical Dominance
Key H2H Insights:
- Milan have won 19 of their last 29 meetings with Bologna
- Unbeaten in 8 consecutive home matches against Bologna since 2016
- Last meeting: Milan 3-1 Bologna (May 2025)
Current Season Form Analysis
AC Milan – San Siro Fortress
- League Position: 8th (3 points from 2 matches)
- Recent Results: 2-0 win vs Lecce (away), 1-2 loss vs Cremonese (home)
- Home Advantage: San Siro averaging 70,000+ attendance
- Key Players: Christian Pulisic (1.7 shots on target per match), Santiago Giménez, Luka Modrić
Bologna – Away Struggles
- League Position: 10th (3 points from 2 matches)
- Recent Results: 1-0 win vs Como (home), 0-1 loss vs Roma (away)
- Away Form: Historically poor at San Siro, winless in last 8 visits
- Key Players: Riccardo Orsolini (1.5 shots on target per match), Nicolò Cambiaghi
Why AC Milan Will Win
1. San Siro Home Advantage
- Fortress Factor: Milan unbeaten in 8 consecutive home matches vs Bologna
- Crowd Support: Average 70,000+ passionate fans creating intimidating atmosphere
- Home Statistics: 60% win rate at San Siro in recent seasons
2. Head-to-Head Dominance
- Historical Edge: 88 wins vs Bologna’s 47 in 189 meetings
- Recent Form: 7 wins in last 10 encounters
- Goal Superiority: Consistently outscored Bologna in recent meetings
3. Squad Quality & Depth
- Star Power: Pulisic, Giménez, Modrić provide game-changing ability
- Tactical Flexibility: Massimiliano Allegri’s experience in big matches
- European Pedigree: Champions League experience vs Bologna’s limited exposure
4. Bologna’s Away Vulnerability
- San Siro Record: Winless in last 8 visits to Milan
- Travel Factor: Historically struggle with Milan’s atmosphere
- Defensive Concerns: Conceded in 80% of away matches vs top-6 teams
Betting Market Analysis
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan Win | 1.90-1.98 | 50.5%-52.6% |
| Draw | 3.50-3.66 | 27.3%-28.6% |
| Bologna Win | 3.92-4.23 | 23.6%-25.5% |
Value Analysis: Milan win at 1.90-1.98 offers excellent value considering their historical dominance and home advantage.
Team News & Tactical Setup
AC Milan Predicted XI (4-2-3-1):
Injuries: Ardon Jashari (muscle), Lorenzo Torriani (doubtful)
- GK: Mike Maignan
- DEF: Davide Calabria, Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, Theo Hernández
- MID: Yunus Musah, Tijjani Reijnders
- CAM: Christian Pulisic, Luka Modrić, Rafael Leão
- ST: Santiago Giménez
Bologna Predicted XI (4-3-3):
Injuries: Ciro Immobile, Emil Holm, Nicolò Casale
- GK: Łukasz Skorupski
- DEF: Stefan Posch, Jhon Lucumí, Sam Beukema, Charalampos Lykogiannis
- MID: Remo Freuler, Lewis Ferguson, Nicolò Cambiaghi
- FWD: Riccardo Orsolini, Joshua Zirkzee, Dan Ndoye
Expert Prediction & Strategy
Primary Recommendation:
AC Milan to Win @ 1.95 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Supporting Evidence:
- 47% historical win rate vs Bologna’s 25%
- Unbeaten in 8 consecutive home matches against Bologna
- San Siro fortress advantage with 70,000+ passionate fans
- Superior individual quality throughout the squad
- Tactical experience under Allegri in pressure situations
Alternative Markets:
- Milan Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 3.20 (Both teams average 2.4 goals in H2H)
- Milan Win to Nil @ 3.80 (Bologna failed to score in 4 of last 8 visits)
Match Prediction Summary
Expected Score: AC Milan 2-0 Bologna
Key Factors:
- Milan’s historical dominance at San Siro
- Bologna’s poor away record against top opposition
- Home crowd advantage creating intimidating atmosphere
- Superior squad depth and individual quality
- Allegri’s tactical acumen in important matches
