As the 2024-25 Premier League season winds down, we’re set for an intriguing Monday night clash at the Amex Stadium. The newly-crowned champions Liverpool travel to face a Brighton side still fighting for European football next season. While the title is already secured for Arne Slot’s men, there’s still plenty at stake for the Seagulls in this May 19th encounter.
Brighton vs Liverpool
Liverpool come into this match having already sealed their Premier League triumph. With 83 points from 36 games, they’ve been the standout team this season. However, since securing the title, their form has understandably dipped with a recent 2-2 draw against Arsenal showing signs of celebration hangover. Reports suggest the players have been enjoying some well-earned time off in Dubai, while the coaching staff headed to Ibiza. Not exactly preparation for a team still with everything to fight for.
Brighton, meanwhile, sit 9th in the table with 55 points and could potentially secure European football if results go their way. Their recent form has been encouraging with two wins, two draws and just one defeat in their last five league outings. That 2-0 away win at Wolves in their last match demonstrated both their attacking threat and defensive solidity.
Statistics for the Match :
Brighton have had some injury concerns but are getting stronger at the right time. They’ll be without Georginio Rutter, James Milner, Ferdi Kadioglu, and Solly March. However, key defenders Lewis Dunk, Igor Julio, and Joel Veltman have recovered from their injuries.
Roberto De Zerbi is likely to go with a 4-2-3-1 formation featuring Verbruggen in goal, protected by a back four of Hinshelwood, van Hecke, Dunk, and Estupinan. The midfield should see Baleba and Ayari providing the foundation for O’Riley, with Adingra and Mitoma on the flanks supporting Danny Welbeck up front.
Liverpool’s injury concerns are minimal with only Joe Gomez and Tyler Morton unavailable. After giving his players time off, Slot faces decisions about how much rotation to implement. It wouldn’t be surprising to see several changes from the team that drew with Arsenal, with players like Quansah, Tsimikas, Endo, and possibly even Nunez getting starts.
What is the Prediction?
When examining the “first to score” market, Brighton represent excellent value. Here’s why:
- Brighton’s first goal record: The Seagulls have scored first in 56% of their matches this season, showcasing their ability to start games strongly.
- Liverpool’s post-title mindset: The champions have naturally eased off since securing the title. Against Arsenal, they let a 2-0 lead slip, showing decreased concentration levels. This relaxed mentality often leads to slow starts.
- Home advantage pattern: At the Amex Stadium, Brighton have been particularly effective in the opening stages. They’ve scored in 78% of their home games this season and find the net in the first half 56% of the time.
- Liverpool’s defensive vulnerability away: While Liverpool’s overall defensive record is impressive, they’ve shown vulnerability away from home, keeping clean sheets in just 44% of their away matches.
- Brighton’s European motivation: With European football potentially on the line, Brighton have everything to play for. Their players will be fired up from the first whistle, while Liverpool have no tangible reward left to pursue this season.
- Statistical precedent: In their previous meetings, Brighton have demonstrated they can hurt Liverpool early. Their aggressive pressing style often catches teams off guard in the opening phases.
The Verdict
All signs point to Brighton starting this match with greater intensity and purpose. While Liverpool remain a formidable opponent even in celebration mode, the combination of their post-title relaxation, Brighton’s strong home record for early goals, and the disparity in motivation levels makes the “Brighton to score first” bet a compelling option.
Final Prediction: Brighton to score first with Liverpool potentially coming back later in the match as their quality eventually tells. Expect an entertaining encounter with the champions receiving another guard of honor but Brighton eager to spoil the party from kickoff.
Summary
Match: Brighton vs Liverpool
Bet: First team to score – Brighton
Odds : -109/1.92
