Prediction : Maribor vs Celje

The Slovenian PrvaLiga opens with a thrilling encounter as Maribor welcome Celje to the Ljudski vrt on Sunday, July 20, 2025, at 18:15 UTC. This Round 1 fixture sees the two founding members of the Slovenian top flight clash in what is known as the Styrian Derby, with both teams eager to start the new season strongly. With crucial points at stake and home advantage in Maribor’s favor, this match promises to be a compelling battle between two historically successful Slovenian clubs.

Maribor vs Celje

Maribor and Celje have faced each other extensively throughout their history, with Maribor holding a superior record in their head-to-head meetings. According to recent statistics, Maribor has won 46 times compared to Celje’s 30 victories, with 23 matches ending in draws across their 99 previous encounters. The goal difference significantly favors Maribor at 174-117, highlighting their historical dominance in this fixture.

In their most recent meeting in May 2025, the teams played to a 1-1 draw at Ljudski vrt, with Sheyi Ojo scoring for Maribor and Svit Sešlar equalizing for Celje. This result was part of a recent trend showing competitive matches between these sides, with both teams finding the back of the net in their last six league encounters.

Maribor, known as “The Purples,” are the most successful club in Slovenian football history with 16 PrvaLiga titles and 9 Slovenian Cups. They finished the 2024-25 season in 2nd place, demonstrating their continued competitiveness at the highest level. The club has a strong home record at Ljudski vrt, where they benefit from passionate support and familiar surroundings.

Meanwhile, Celje are the current defending champions after winning their second league title in the 2023-24 season. They have established themselves as a formidable force in Slovenian football, having won their first PrvaLiga title in 2019-20 and repeating the feat four years later. Celje also recently won the Slovenian Cup in 2024-25, completing a successful campaign.

Statistics for the match:

Recent form analysis shows that Maribor have been particularly strong at home, with a +7% home advantage ranking them 7th in the league for improved performance when playing at Ljudski vrt. They score 24% more goals at home compared to away matches, demonstrating their effectiveness in familiar surroundings. This home advantage could prove crucial in the season opener.

Celje, despite being defending champions, have shown some vulnerability away from home. Statistics indicate they have a -2% home advantage, suggesting they perform slightly better away from their own stadium. However, their away record includes some impressive performances, and they scored 1.40 goals per match in away fixtures during the previous season.

The betting markets favor Maribor slightly, with odds around 2.35-2.45 for a home victory, while Celje are priced at approximately 2.70-2.87. The draw is available at odds of 3.45-3.65, reflecting the competitive nature expected between these two quality sides.

First Team to Score markets are particularly interesting for this fixture. Historical data shows that Maribor have scored first in many of their home matches, particularly benefiting from early momentum generated by their passionate home crowd. The Ljudski vrt atmosphere is renowned for lifting the home team, especially in derby matches like this one.

What is the Prediction?

In conclusion, despite Celje’s status as defending champions, our match prediction is for Maribor to score first. The home advantage at Ljudski vrt, combined with Maribor’s superior historical record in this fixture and their tendency to start matches strongly at home, gives them the edge in opening the scoring. The Styrian Derby atmosphere will energize the home crowd, and Maribor’s players will be highly motivated to make a statement in front of their supporters against the defending champions. While Celje possess quality throughout their squad, the psychological advantage of playing at home in a season opener, coupled with Maribor’s strong home scoring record, supports this prediction for the first goal of the match.

Summary

Match: Maribor vs Celje

Bet: 1st team to score – Maribor

Odds: 1.85 / -118

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