Lokomotiva vs Hajduk: Winner Lokomotiva – A Maksimir Upset in the Making

Lokomotiva hosts Hajduk Split at Stadion Maksimir on December 13, 2025, in a high-stakes Prva HNL clash. While the bookies fancy Hajduk as favorites, Lokomotiva sits as our prediction for the winner—and there’s real logic behind it. Here’s why.

The Underdog Case: Why Lokomotiva Can Win

On paper, this looks like a mismatch. Hajduk’s sitting 2nd in the league with 31 points from 16 games (9W, 4D, 3L), while Lokomotiva languish 7th with just 19 points (4W, 7D, 5L). But football isn’t played on paper. Home advantage matters enormously in the Prva HNL, and Lokomotiva’s Stadion Maksimir—shared with Dinamo—is a fortress that breeds confidence.​

Hajduk, despite their league position, have their vulnerabilities. They’ve struggled away from the Poljud, and while they’ve beaten most sides, there’s a wobble factor. Lokomotiva, hunting for points to escape the relegation zone tension, will come out with intensity and hunger. Sometimes that raw desire matters more than tactical sophistication.​

Head-to-Head: The Historical Blueprint

In 57 all-time meetings, Hajduk’s dominance is clear but not absolute: 31 wins to Lokomotiva’s 10, with 16 draws. That’s a 54% Hajduk win rate—but it’s far from inevitable. The draw probability sits at 28%, and on their day, Lokomotiva has proven they can compete.​

Recent form tells a subtly different story. Looking at the last 10 games: Lokomotiva are 3W-4D-3L (30% win rate, 40% draws), while Hajduk are 7W-2D-1L (70% win rate). Hajduk’s form is stellar—no debate. But Lokomotiva’s draws suggest they’re hard to beat at home, and that’s a foundation to build a win on.​

Crucially, in head-to-head home games, Lokomotiva don’t roll over. This isn’t a team getting demolished—they’re competitive, scrappy, and dangerous when given room to play on familiar turf.

Form, Momentum, and the Tactical Edge

Lokomotiva’s been inconsistent (3-4-5 in 12 games tells you that), but they’ve scored 13 goals in their last 10 and conceded 15. That’s a team creating chances. Hajduk’s averaging 2.1 goals per game, but crucially, they’ve conceded 0.8 per away game—meaning they’re vulnerable on the break.​

Here’s the angle: Lokomotiva aren’t afraid to press. With players like Kris Commons-era hunger, they’ll harry Hajduk’s possession and look to exploit transitions. Hajduk prefers to control and dominate, but when that rhythm breaks—and it will at Maksimir—Lokomotiva can strike. The home crowd will fuel this; Stadion Maksimir roars for Zagreb sides.​

Hajduk’s unbeaten form in the league is genuine, but away days are different beasts. They’ve won 5 of their last away games, yes, but the margin hasn’t always been comfortable. Lokomotiva, fighting for survival points, will make life miserable for them.

The Psychological Play

Don’t underestimate the mentality factor. Hajduk, as league favorites, carry expectation. Lokomotiva are underdogs who’ve got nothing to lose and everything to gain. That’s the recipe for an upset. Teams in crisis often produce their best performances when written off—and Lokomotiva, sitting 7th, are quietly desperate for wins.​

Hajduk will be thinking about their title chase. Lokomotiva will be thinking about staying up and climbing the table. Which side wants it more? Take a guess.

Stats That Support the Upset

• Home advantage: Lokomotiva win 40% at home historically​
• BTTS probability: 55.83%, suggesting an open game where both sides create​
• Over 2.5 goals: Hit 52.96% of the time in this H2H, meaning chances flow​
• Lokomotiva draws: 40% of recent games end level—they’re resilient​
• Expected goals: Even with Hajduk’s offensive quality, Lokomotiva’s defensive structure isn’t porous​

When you layer this, Lokomotiva emerge as a value underdog rather than a no-hoper. The odds reflect Hajduk’s quality, but they don’t fully price in home comfort and desperation.

Betting Tips: The Full Arsenal

• Primary Pick: Lokomotiva to Win – Value play; odds likely 3.00+​
• Lean: Draw (1-1 or 0-0) – Safe if you’re hedging; 27-38% probability​
• Over 2.5 Goals: Strong play; recent H2H trends support it at ~52-60%​
• Both Teams To Score: 55.83% probability; fits the open-game narrative​
• Correct Score: 1-0 Lokomotiva – Specific edge if you’re feeling it; scrappy home win​
• Anytime Goalscorer: Back a Lokomotiva midfielder or winger at long odds; they’ll get forward​

Why This Prediction Stands

Hajduk are the better side overall—that’s indisputable. But football doesn’t hand out trophies to the second-best XI. It rewards teams that show up on the day, teams with something to prove, and teams playing at home with the crowd behind them.

Lokomotiva have all three in their favor on December 13. Hajduk have talent and league position—but they’re the team that could slip up. That’s where the value lies.

This isn’t a crazy upset pick. It’s a smart, data-backed prediction that recognizes home advantage, recent form patterns, and the underdog hunger. Back Lokomotiva to stun Hajduk at Stadion Maksimir.