Chelsea vs Arsenal Match Prediction: Winner Chelsea

Chelsea hosts Arsenal in a high-stakes Premier League showdown at Stamford Bridge on November 30, 2025, with the Blues tipped to secure a vital victory. Chelsea’s strong home form, boasting wins in recent matches like 3-0 against Barcelona and Wolverhampton, positions them as favorites against an Arsenal side that has struggled in key away fixtures. Historically competitive, with Arsenal holding a slight edge in overall head-to-heads (84 wins to Chelsea’s 66 across 211 meetings), recent trends favor Chelsea’s attacking depth and defensive resilience at home.​

The Blues have scored prolifically, netting 14 goals in their last five outings, while maintaining the league’s most clean sheets at seven. Arsenal remains unbeaten in their last eight against Chelsea (6W, 2D), but Chelsea’s current momentum under their manager, combined with Stamford Bridge’s electric atmosphere, could tip the scales. Key players like Joao Pedro, with high expected goals output, will drive Chelsea’s assault, exploiting Arsenal’s vulnerabilities on the road.​

Head-to-Head Insights

Chelsea and Arsenal have delivered thrilling encounters over the years. In 78 games since 1995, Chelsea won 26, Arsenal 29, and 23 ended in draws, with both sides averaging around 1.4 goals per game. Recent form shows Chelsea winning two of their last five, while Arsenal took three, but Chelsea’s home advantage shifts the dynamic— they’ve secured three wins in six home games this season.​

Notable clashes include Arsenal’s 5-0 thrashing in 2024 and Chelsea’s 6-0 record win in 2014, highlighting the potential for high-scoring affairs. Didier Drogba’s 13 derby goals underscore Chelsea’s historical firepower in this fixture. Expect Chelsea to leverage their strengths in counter-attacks and set-pieces for a narrow but deserved win.​

Team Form and Key Stats

Chelsea enters unbeaten in six, averaging 1.9 goals per match and scoring 11 in their last five. Arsenal has firepower but concedes regularly away, with cards and disruptions from players like Myles Lewis-Skelly (1.06 cards/90). Chelsea’s style—strong in wings and very strong in transitions—counters Arsenal’s possession game effectively.​

Injuries and suspensions could play a role, but Chelsea’s depth, including recent clean sheets, gives them the edge. Over 2.5 goals has hit in 50% of historical H2H, supporting an open game where Chelsea pulls ahead late.​

Betting Tips

• Match winner: Chelsea to win
• Over 2.5 goals: High confidence from recent scoring trends
• Both teams to score: Yes, given H2H history
• Correct score prediction: 2-1 Chelsea
• Chelsea -0.5 Asian Handicap: Value bet at home